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Will FIFA sell a stake in the World Cup to private investors before 1 June 2030?

70%chance it happens

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FIFA is building the FIFA Forward Enterprise, a company valued around $20 billion that would run the World Cup's commercial rights, with a minority stake to be sold to private investors led by Joshua Kushner's Thrive Capital and JP Morgan advising. UEFA says this crosses a line football's institutions should never cross, and the plan still needs a majority of FIFA's member associations and its 37-member council.

Resolves YES if, on or before 1 June 2030, FIFA officially announces a completed sale of an equity stake in the World Cup or in an entity holding its commercial rights (such as the FIFA Forward Enterprise) to private investors, as reported by at least two major international outlets (AP, Reuters, ESPN, BBC, or equivalent).

Source: FIFA's media releases and major international press.

Settles on 1 June 2030, 23:59 ET, or earlier once a completed deal is announced. The date stands in for the 2030 World Cup kickoff, which is expected that month.

A signed and announced deal counts even if it later unwinds. Council approval, letters of intent, or reported negotiations alone do not resolve YES. Sponsorships, broadcasting deals and loans do not count; sold equity in the tournament or its rights vehicle is the bar.

place 25, win 35 if you're right

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