The words, explained
Every prediction-market term in plain words. No costume formats, no DeFi homework.
Anchoring bias
The first number you see drags your guess toward it, even when that number is junk.
Ape in
To pile into a position big and fast, research optional.
Arbitrage
Spotting the same question priced two different ways and taking the free gap.
Availability heuristic
Guessing how likely something is by how easily examples come to mind. Loud, recent things feel more likely than they are.
Bagholder
Someone stuck holding a position long after the smart money left.
Bankroll
The pot you've set aside for staking. Managing it, not picking winners, is the actual skill.
Base rate fallacy
Judging by the story in front of you and forgetting how often the thing actually happens.
Binary market
A question with exactly two ends: yes or no. No draws, no maybes.
Brier score
A grade for forecasters. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is coin-flipping. Lower is better.
Calibration
Being right as often as your percents say. If your 70%s hit 7 times out of 10, you're calibrated.
Cash out
Selling your position back to the market before it resolves, locking in today's value instead of waiting.
Chalk
The heavy favorite. "Betting chalk" = always backing the likely thing.
Chance
The number next to yes. 62% means the crowd thinks it happens about 6 times out of 10.
Conjunction fallacy
Rating a detailed story as more likely than a simple one. Every added detail can only make it less likely.
CPMM
The simple math our robot uses: the more people pick yes, the more yes costs. That's it.
Daily Foresight
Foresee's one featured question a day. Get it right, earn double profit.
Degen
Short for degenerate, someone who bets big, often, and mostly for the thrill. Usually said with affection.
Edge
Knowing something the price doesn't. The gap between your probability and the market's.
Event contract
The official name for a yes/no bet on a real event. Regulators say "swap"; we say "question".
Expected value
What a stake is worth on average. Chance of winning × payout, minus what you put in.
Fade
To deliberately bet the opposite of someone, a person, a crowd, or a narrative.
Forecasting
Putting a number on the future instead of just an opinion.
Gambler's fallacy
Thinking a coin is "due" after a streak. It isn't. The coin doesn't remember.
Hedging
Placing a second stake against your first so no outcome wrecks you.
Hot hand fallacy
Believing a streak makes the next success more likely. Sometimes an illusion. Sometimes, awkwardly, real.
House edge
The cut a bookie bakes into the odds so they win either way. Prediction markets skip it; play money really skips it.
Implied probability
The percent chance hiding inside a price. On Foresee it's not hiding, it's the big number on every card.
KYC
"Know Your Customer", the ID check every real-money platform must run before you can deposit.
Limit order
An order that only executes at your price or better, "buy YES, but only at 55% or less."
Liquidity
How easy it is to place a decent-size stake without moving the price. Deep market = calm price.
Longshot bias
Our habit of overpaying for unlikely-but-exciting outcomes. Why 5% chances get bet like 15% ones.
Market maker
The robot on the other side of every trade, so there's always someone to trade with.
Maura
Foresee's points. The Maura you stake, win, and climb leaderboards with.
Moneyline
American odds. A minus number is what you must risk to win 100. A plus number is what you win by risking 100.
Odds
Another way of writing a chance. We skip the weird formats and just show you the percent.
Oracle
Whoever (or whatever) decides what actually happened when a market ends.
Order book
The public list of standing buy and sell offers at each price. How Polymarket and Kalshi match trades.
Outcome bias
Judging a decision by how it turned out, instead of whether it was smart when you made it.
Over/under
A bet on a total. The market sets a line, and you pick whether the real number lands over or under it.
Parlay
One bet made of several picks chained together. Every pick must hit, one miss and the whole thing pays nothing.
Payout
What you get back if you're right. Your stake plus your winnings.
Play money
Points instead of dollars. Same thrill, same skill-building, zero gambling laws, zero risk.
Prediction market
A place where people put points on whether real things will happen. The prices become a live percent chance.
Prop bet
A side bet on something inside the event. Not who wins, the little stuff: first scorer, anthem length, coin toss.
Resolution
The moment a question gets its answer. Yes-holders get paid, no-holders don't.
Sharp
A consistently profitable forecaster whose bets are worth copying. The opposite of a square.
Slippage
Getting a slightly worse average price than the one on screen, because your own trade moves the market.
Spread
A handicap that turns a lopsided game into a coin flip: the favorite has to win by more than the spread number.
Stake
The amount you put on yes or no. Place 10, win 16 if you're right.
Steam
A price moving fast in one direction because informed money is piling in.
Sunk cost fallacy
Staying in a losing position because of what you already put in. That stake is gone either way, only the future counts.
Vig
The bookmaker's built-in cut. Why sportsbook percentages add up to more than 100.
Whale
A trader whose stakes are big enough to move the price by themselves.
Wisdom of crowds
Lots of half-informed guesses averaging out to one surprisingly good one.