Will a major AI lab release a new frontier model before August 15?

82%chance it happens

YES 82%

NO 18%

resolved YES

Chance over time

82%chance of yes

Frontier releases cluster, then go quiet for months.

Resolves YES if OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Meta or xAI publicly releases a new frontier model before 15 August 2026.

Source: the lab's own official announcement.

Settles on 15 August 2026, 23:59 ET.

The model must be generally available or in public preview, and must be a new model rather than a point update to an existing one.

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