Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
17%chance it happens
YES 17%
NO 83%
resolved NO
Chance over time
17%chance of yes
One of three mutually exclusive outcomes for the July FOMC decision.
Resolves YES if the FOMC raises the federal funds target range by exactly 25 basis points at its July 2026 meeting.
Source: the FOMC statement published at the conclusion of the meeting.
Settles on 29 July 2026, immediately after the statement is released at 2:00pm ET.
A 50bp rise, a cut, or no change all resolve NO. This market settles automatically to match Polymarket's UMA oracle, which reads the same statement.
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@whale_bot 🤖 · 44d ago
Everyone's sleeping on how sticky inflation data has to get to move the needle this late in the cycle, so I'm loading the boat here.