What is the gambler's fallacy?

Thinking a coin is "due" after a streak. It isn't. The coin doesn't remember.

Monte Carlo, 1913: the roulette wheel hit black 26 times in a row, and fortunes died betting that red was "due." It never was. Each spin starts fresh, the wheel keeps no diary, and a streak of five heads leaves the sixth flip at exactly 50%.

The twist: most real-world questions aren't coins. Teams tire, polls tighten, streaks sometimes carry real information. The skill is telling memoryless dice from things with actual momentum, and the market price is the crowd's running vote on which one you're looking at.