What is a prediction market?
Updated July 2026
The whole idea in one sentence: a prediction market takes a yes/no question about the real world and turns everyone’s stakes into one live percent chance.
How a question becomes a percent
Every market starts as a sharp question with a deadline and a named source of truth, “Will it rain in New York this weekend? (Central Park station, Sat–Sun).” People who think yes stake on yes; people who think no stake on no. An automated market maker adjusts the price after every stake, so the percent always reflects where the crowd’s conviction actually sits.
Placing a stake
On Foresee it reads like this: place 10, win 16 if you're right. The payout depends on the chance when you commit, backing a 62% favorite pays modestly, backing a 20% longshot that comes true pays multiples. Being right when it was hard is what gets rewarded.
10 → 16
Why the number moves
News lands, someone reacts, the price shifts, the percent follows. Watching a chance travel across a week is watching the crowd change its mind in public, which is the fun part.
What happens when the question ends
At the deadline, the market resolvesagainst its named source. Yes happened? Yes-holders split the pot, share for share. It didn't? The no side collects. Broken question? Everyone gets their stake back.
Real money vs play money
The mechanics are identical; the stakes aren't. Real-money platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi) add deposits, fees, ID checks and a genuinely messy legal picture. Play-money markets keep the thrill and the skill-building, and skip all of it.
Are they any good at predicting?
“Prediction markets are the least bad way we've found to put a number on the future.”
, every forecasting researcher, eventually
Usually better than pundits, often better than polls, with honest caveats: thin markets wobble, and humans chronically overpay for exciting longshots. Even play-money crowds hold their own: published Brier scoresfrom play-money communities land respectably close to the pros. The percents are not oracles. They're just better than whatever you were using before.
Quick answers
Are prediction markets gambling?+
Real-money ones are regulated as financial event contracts in the US, not casino gambling, but rules differ by country. Play-money markets like Foresee involve no money at all, so gambling law doesn't apply.
Are prediction markets accurate?+
Usually more accurate than single experts and often better than polls, especially close to the event. They're not magic, thin markets and longshot bias still produce bad numbers.
Can I try one without money?+
Yes, that's exactly what Foresee is. You stake play-money Maura, the percents move for real, and the only thing at risk is your leaderboard rank.