What is a prediction market?

A place where people put points on whether real things will happen. The prices become a live percent chance.

Ask a room "will it rain tomorrow?" and you get opinions. Ask a prediction market and you get a number, because everyone has to back their opinion with a stake, and the stakes push a price up or down until it settles where the crowd genuinely believes it.

That number updates every time someone trades. News breaks, people react, the percent moves. It's a weather vane built out of bets.