What is longshot bias?

Our habit of overpaying for unlikely-but-exciting outcomes. Why 5% chances get bet like 15% ones.

Brains love a lottery. Decades of betting data show people systematically overpay for longshots and underpay for boring favorites, the thrill is priced in.

Knowing this is free money for the calibrated: the 95% side of an exciting question is chronically underpriced, because nobody brags about backing the obvious.