What is calibration in forecasting?

Being right as often as your percents say. If your 70%s hit 7 times out of 10, you're calibrated.

Anyone can say "probably." Calibration asks: when you say 70%, does it actually happen 70% of the time? Most beginners run overconfident, their 90%s hit like 70%s.

The fix is feedback: make lots of small forecasts, see the results, adjust. A prediction market is a calibration gym with a scoreboard.