What is the wisdom of crowds?

Lots of half-informed guesses averaging out to one surprisingly good one.

No single person knows the answer, but everyone knows a little piece. When a market aggregates thousands of stakes, the noise cancels and the signal adds up, which is why market percents so often embarrass individual pundits.

The 2026 twist from research: often it's a small sharp minority doing the heavy lifting while the crowd provides the liquidity. Still counts.